As we approach the two-thirds mark of the CHL season, the playoff races are coming into focus. Out West, the Thunder Bay Kestrels and Colorado Springs Zoomies are on track to claim the top two spots, while three other teams – the Fargo Flickertails, Indianapolis Redline, and Spokane Zebras – are duking it out for the other two playoff berths. The Omaha Ashcats and Idaho Spuds, meanwhile, are effectively – if not yet mathematically – out of the running,
The East is a different story. Similar to the West, two teams – in this case, the Oshawa Drive and Virginia Rhinos – are comfortably ahead of the pack. The Cincinnati Bluebirds seem unlikely to catch Oshawa and Virginia, but they should have third place solidly in hand. That leaves one remaining playoff spot up for grabs, and four teams – all flawed, all with losing records, all with some clear strengths and distinct weaknesses, desperately chasing that spot.
“Somebody’s going to get that [playoff] spot, because the rules say you have to have eight teams in the playoffs,” said Roland Tedesco, coach of the Halifax Atlantics, one of the four teams in the chase. “But who’s the favorite? There isn’t one. Whoever’s least bad down the stretch, I guess.”
If the season ended today, the Portland Gulls would claim the fourth spot. The Gulls – CHL affiliate of the Rhode Island Seekers – have proven, like their parent club, to be more competitive than expected this season. All four teams in this demolition derby have below-average offense, but Portland’s is the best of the lot, averaging a shade over 2.5 goals per game. RW Horton Behring leads the Gulls’ attack with 16 goals, tied for third in the CHL.
“Horton is going to be an offensive force in the SHL someday,” said Gulls coach Rex Claymore. “He’s got a big-league shot and a big-league scorer’s instinct. “He’s going to do some damage when he gets up there.”
Unfortunately, the Gulls’ fast-paced style of play leaves them vulnerable to rushes at the other end. Portland allows over 30.5 shots per game. Thanks to solid performances from their goalies – collectively producing a .907 save percentage – they’re managing a 2.80 GAA, 11th in the league. Their performance in net took a hit when the Seekers called up Carson Wagner (9-12-2, 2.75 GAA, .908 save percentage) at the All-Star break. His replacement, Yorke Baxter, has been a step back (3-3-0, 3.14, .896), though it has yet to cost them in the standings.
A point behind Portland are two teams built very much in the same image – and the opposite of the Gulls. The Atlantics and the Hartford Harpoons are both scrapping, trapping teams that try to frustrate opponents in the neutral zone and slow the pace of the game. In this way, Halifax and Hartford resemble their parent clubs, the Quebec Tigres and Boston Badgers, respectively. However, they lack the high-end scorers that their big-league counterparts possess, and therefore struggle to win even with quality defense.
The Harpoons are a slightly less extreme case. Their defense allows a meager 26.2 shots per game – third-fewest in the league – and their solid goaltending, led by Coleman Tremont (13-15-1, 2.16, .918) turns aside the vast majority of shots that find their way to the net. As a result, their GAA is a slender 2.24, fourth in the league. They’re especially strong on the penalty kill, thwarting 86.6% of enemy chances, second-best in the circuit.
Unfortunately, Harrford’s offense is even feebler than that of their opponents. They score fewer than 2 goals per game on fewer than 25 shots a game. Their leading scorer, RW Henry Van Alpin, has just 10 goals – and he scored four of them in one night.
As unbalanced as Hartford’s game looks, Halifax’s is even worse. Only Cincinnati has lower-event games (in terms of total shots by both teams) than the Atlantics – but Cincinnati comfortably outshoots their opponents, and Halifax does not. Ordinarily, a team that held opponents to a 2.19 GAA, third-slimmest figure in the CHL, should be a playoff squad. But the Atlantics are offensively helpless. They manage a league-low 24.3 shots per game, and thanks to a putrid 7.1% shooting percentage, they’ve managed a measly 1.7 goals a game – worse than Hartford and every other team in the league by a wide margin.
The Atlantics do not have a fixed #1 goalie, rotating between Morgan Moore (12-9-1, 2.12, .914) and Jonathan Crane (4-13-0, 2.28, .901). Their leading scorer (with 10 goals) is 32-year-od LW Yann Eberlein, while their second-best, D Barrett Forbes (9 goals) has missed a third of the season with an injury.
“God bless our fans for sticking with us,” said Tedesco. “We’re not playing the prettiest brand of hockey. It’s hard for me to watch sometimes, and I get paid for it. Plus, I drink. Any of our fans who can watch our games sober deserves a medal.”
Currently in last place, three points behind Halifax and Hartford, sit the Scranton Electric Mules. Scranton is the only one of the four “contenders” with a positive plus-minus rating, at +6. Plus, they have the league’s leading scorer, D Dalton Weagle (19 goals). So why are they in last? Part of the reason is their dreadful performance on special teams. Their 12.5% power-play conversion rate is second worst in the league, as is their 78% penalty-kill percentage. Scranton also has a tough time staying out of the box; their 413 penalty minutes are second most in the CHL.
Defensively, the Mules also struggle, allowing the second-most shots per game (30.9). When Shawn Stickel (6-8-5, 2.46, .917) was their primary netminder, he was able to cover up some of Scranton’s defensive deficiencies. However, he was trade to the Kansas City Smoke in midseason and replaced by Odelis Chicoine, who has not quite been able to repeat Stickel’s heroics (3-9-0, 2.90, .905).
“We’re fine at 5-on-5,” said Scranton coach Sven Danielsen, “but we find ourselves in man-down situations too often, and it costs us too often. And when we’re in man-up situations, we haven’t managed to take advantage. If we’re going to make the playoffs, those are the areas we’ll need to focus on.”
Perhaps one of these four teams will catch fire over the last third of the season and take firm hold of that last playoff spot. But it seems at least as likely that this ungainly four-way race will continue, until one team comes out – however narrowly – on top.